Do the Math of Peak Oil and Convince Yourself

Collapse of Industrial Civilization

A Step-By-Step Plan to
Calculate Hubbert’s Curve

Ing. Hans Zandvliet, April 2014

Table of Contents
Do the Math of Peak Oil and Convince Yourself
Table of Contents
Introduction
Download and Organize CDIAC Data
Methodology of Calculating Hubbert’s Curve
Do the Math!
Back to Our CDIAC Database
Defining the Linear Trend Line
Calculating Hubbert’s Curve
Matching Hubbert’s Curve with Historical Data
Combining Hubbert’s Curve and Historical Data in a Graph
Conclusions
Recent Developments
Bibliography

Introduction

Until Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère published their paper The End of Cheap Oil in 1998 (Campbell & Laherrére, 1998), the petroleum geologist Marion King Hubbert (1903 – 1989) was all but forgotten, including his correct forecast – back in 1956 – of the US’s peak of oil production in 1970 (Hubbert, 1956). In their paper Campbell and Laherrère warned that:

Barring a global recession, it seems most likely that world production of…

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